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Post by Scumhunter on May 19, 2016 16:25:49 GMT -5
Hopefully.
To be honest with you, I'm slightly disappointed they removed Godwin. However, I understand the list was stagnant in captures in the past few years and the FBI wanted somewhat of a fresh start beginning with when they removed Mogilevich (who we all thought should have never been added in the first place anyway).
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Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on May 19, 2016 16:25:49 GMT -5
Godwin has been on the list longer even before I started sleuthing and this removal shocks me big time.
But the way I see the list going forward looks a whole lot different than it did last last night for sure now.
Now I do feel sad too since the FBI used all their resources and with this one I can say they did their best but all we can do now is say they did try, a guy that really deserved it but we came up short unlike Mogilevich this one is very different.
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Post by HeadMarshal on May 19, 2016 17:53:07 GMT -5
In regards to what just happened with the list, this makes me think two things; they have leads that Victor Gerena is still alive and in Cuba and they're just waiting for a possible US-Cuba extradition agreement; they have had no leads on Glen Godwin in the past 20 years. If the latter is true, I understand the decision to remove Glen Godwin. Thankfully like Donald Eugene Webb, they're still keeping him on the site.
The two new fugitives are both really bad people so it's overall a good update for the list.
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Post by Scumhunter on May 19, 2016 18:04:17 GMT -5
According to CBS Crimesider, Godwin "no longer fit the criteria for the list"- whatever that they mean. Perhaps they also felt the potential threat to the general public wasn't as great anymore as well. As violent as Godwin was, he's gone 20 years without making any noise since his Mexico escape that we know of: www.cbsnews.com/news/two-fugitives-added-to-fbis-ten-most-wanted-list/ |
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Post by Scumhunter on May 19, 2016 18:40:11 GMT -5
And now some further explanation: Also off the list is Glen Stewart Godwin, who the FBI said was being sought for his 1987 escape from Folsom State Prison in California where he was serving a murder sentence. He was then arrested later in 1987 for alleged drug trafficking in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. In 1991, he allegedly killed a fellow inmate and escaped, according to the FBI. "We think the payoff from the publicity has diminished over time," Comey said. "That's our criteria: Can we make a difference in this case with the publicity?" www.wral.com/fbi-adds-2009-chicago-slaying-suspect-to-10-most-wanted-list/15714829/ |
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Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on May 19, 2016 18:50:28 GMT -5
Well it explains why the placed him to the top left... To see if they still can get tips but I guess all the avenues worked to no avail.
I'm still in shock about this removal as it changes the top ten list dramatically especially with the second removal in less than 6 months.
Now the bigger question is Gerena, he seems likely than Ravelo to be taken off but I honestly don't think any more removals will happen in the next few years.
Now I guess we can call them the elusive 8 added before 2015.
Now for the time being I'm happy we have new fugitives since 2 of my candidates are on the top ten list and I really don't have many murderers left as candidates as I do CAC fugitives, but I feel Hartin has a moderate chance of making it on to the list though.
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Post by Scumhunter on May 19, 2016 20:30:17 GMT -5
I definitely think removals will happen in the next few years but most of them will be captures.  |
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Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on May 19, 2016 20:41:52 GMT -5
I'm optimistic that Gerena is found and brought back to the states or has been agreed to be brought back which is why he hasn't been removed so I'll say he'd be the likely capture of any fugitive before 2015.
Now I feel Policarpio and Macedo will both be challenging to find never mind the time they've been on the run but we'll see how things will go.
Now one thing I've been thinking all afternoon and evening is that the FBI ten list will change greatly almost similar to when Osama and Bulger were caught and killed, it reminds me of 2011.
Now the FBI ten most wanted list goes like this:
Victor Manuel Gerena
#386
Robert William Fisher
#475
Alexis Flores
#487
Jason Derek Brown
#489
Eduardo Ravelo
#493
Fidel Urbina
#497
William Bradford Bishop
#502
Yaser Abdel Said
#504
Luis Macedo
#507
Philip Patrick Policarpio
#508
So this list really is getting cooking here as we only have 5 fugitives from before 2010 (50% of the list from what we started with in 2010) so I'm curious to see what happens over the next few years by 2020.
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Post by Scumhunter on May 20, 2016 2:52:14 GMT -5
One thing I notice is that sans the 1970's when Vietnam Era fugitives were taken off the list without capture that it's usually at least 19 or 20 years before a fugitive is removed. Meaning Robert Fisher would be after Gerena but not until 2020. (Brad Bishop might defy this logic since he'd be in his mid-90's in 20 years).
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Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on May 20, 2016 4:41:28 GMT -5
I see Brad Bishop off the list by the time he turns 87-89 years old (since many people pass away peacefully at that age.
Robert Fisher on the other hand that's a tough one to let go of, the crime was as brutal as it gets, like it is understandable with Bishop since he's getting up into that age or Victor Gerena since he's been on the list for decades.
It's sad that Godwin wasn't caught but as Comey said the "payoff of tips has diminished" and those are some very strong words on behalf of Director Comey, but again if a fugitive unfortunately doesn't have tips coming in then I guess it's time to give them the ax.
But I'd have to say this, Gerena hasn't been removed (I've said this a lot now) and it could be for good reasons of why he hasn't been taken off the list.
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Post by Scumhunter on May 20, 2016 4:46:23 GMT -5
Oh I still doubt Fisher will be removed. Just that based on history he's the next one on the chopping block (besides Gerena but that's a matter of US-Cuban relations now it seems). Once a fugitive hits 19-20 years on the list, they become possible candidates for removal. But it could be 40 years and I'd still want to see Fisher on there.
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Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on May 20, 2016 8:11:11 GMT -5
What got me thinking was some of the movies and tv stars heading over there to Cuba now that things have gotten better relationship wise and may be talking to them about Gerena.
Now Ravelo I see him being removed but he's highly unlikely to be taken off since he's still going down for the contract killings, but for the time being I think that none of the 8 added before 2015 will be removed now.
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Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on May 23, 2016 17:03:34 GMT -5
Okay so it's been about 4 days since Policarpio and Macedo, both such deserving additions were placed on the list and I gotta hand it to Director Comey, he hit the nail on the hit when it comes to challenging and deserving.
Unlike with Walter Leee Willams and Jose Guevara I feel Both of these fugitives make the list somewhat vibrant since they are recent cases and give the list more hope for more captures now that 2 long timers were removed.
However both have been on the list a few days and I'm not a genius, but I see them being on the list for awhile, so that's the awaited challenge since neither one of them has surrendered or have been captured, which should make for an interesting spring/ early summer.
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Post by Scumhunter on May 23, 2016 17:10:01 GMT -5
Well, ya never know. The important thing is not to panic when it's only been a few days and also not to panic if it's been a few months although obviously we want to see these guys caught sooner rather than later. We've been spoiled by *mostly* quick captures from the FBI's new additions the past few years, but it's not always the case.
One thing that annoys me is often when a high publicity fugitive gets captured, one of the first comments I read is "what took them so long"- even if it was only a 2-week search. In this fast-paced, high-tech word, everyone wants instant results right away. It doesn't work that way and will never work that way in fugitive cases. Our advanced digital world certainly helps law enforcement in capturing these guys and they probably do get caught at a faster pace now, but good old fashioned police work needs to accompany it as well. Unless it's a case like Brenda Delgado, where it's pretty much known where the fugitive was hiding already, you're asking to find one person in a world full of billions of people.
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Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on May 23, 2016 17:24:43 GMT -5
Oh yes that's why Director Comey got it right since this isn't one of those instances like Brenda Delgado was known to be hiding out in Torreon, Mexico and it was a matter of acting to take her into custody and it only took em 2 days, these guys are different and traditional, we don't really know where they went since their trails went cold.
I love quick captures don't get me wrong, but cases like Policarpio or Macedo are an interesting challenge since it gets the Gears in the Brain working and are very recent.
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